You can see it here.
It's a reprint of most of an interview given the UK Newspaper The Independent by Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.
Key bits include: "The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong...." and: "Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years - at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated...."
You can see how the article appeared in the Independent here. There is a lot more. What is particularly interesting about this link is that the newspaper has been running an email opinion and feedback and debate section after publication.
This is almost as interesting as the article itself.
For example:
'global production is likely to peak in about 10 years'
Firstly, oil is not produced, it is extracted. The earth produces oil at an extremely slow [geological] rate compared to the insane rate at which we are using it ..... around 84 million barrels a day, down from a peak of 87 million barrels a day.
Secondly, it's a nice line, but it does not match the facts.
Global extraction of light sweet crude peaked in 2005, and absolute peak of extraction almost certainly occured between 2005 and 2008. Desperation attempts to prop up the system (tar sands, deep water etc.) are unlikely to compensate for loss of extraction from old oil fields, such as Cantarell, which is now experiencing double digit annual depletion.
Thirdly, since we are headed for an abrupt climate change event (due to massively excessive emissions, very much related ot the use of oil), the last thing we need is an economic recovery that spurs increased oil use and increased emissions.
So here we are, falling off the energy cliff and headed into enviornmental catstrophe, with clowns and criminals in control, squandering one of the most precious substrances we have on futile wars and the construction of white elephants, such as the absurd Olympic venue.
The crux of peak oil is, of course, that there can be NO economic growth with a declining energy supply. And a little further down the track the industrialised food production system, which is totally dependent on cheap oil, will collapse, either rather slowly, or very rapidly -we just don't know..
Governments totally ignore all these issues.
It all goes to show what many of us have been sating for a long time: mainstream culture is completely insane and we are headed for a series of catastrophe of almost unimaginable proportions.
However, in the culture of 'be happy, think positive', reality rarely gets a mention.
And:
This piece is so laughable that it is either a hoax or the author was told to write something to cause panic on a slow day of selling papers.What a worry!
I have been in the Oil/Natural gas business all of my adult life. I can tell you this: We've only found about one tenth of what's available. The United States alone has enough reserves to be energy independent for centuries to come.
If you still believe the myth that oil was made by decomposing dinosaurs or vegetation you are so behind the times. Our planet makes oil and it has never stopped making oil. Oil is a fundamental element of the earth just like water, methane, carbon dioxide, oxygen, iron, etc.
Stop the panic mongering.
And if you are interested in actually hearing what the good Dr had to say about these same things about a year ago, try this:
2 comments:
The Green Party supporters are as usual singing about doomsday. So they should ALL be travelling by Bicycle everywhere to work, leisure, and business. Imagine a Green Undertaker delivering a body to the cemetry on a cavalcade of bicycles? The Greens are like a bunch of watermelons. Green on the outside, red on the inside, and would give you the pip!
Thanks for this. I bike to work everyday - well - except when it rains hard. As better cycle lanes go alongside roads and through parks and alongside the waterfront in Auckland - lots more people are biking. They do it because they like it, and it's safe. Not because they are watermelons.... a bit fruity maybe, certainly healthier for it...
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