It was 9:00 am on Friday morning, and members were invited to an extraordinary meeting of the Auckland Regional Transport Committee whose purpose was: "...to provide an opportunity to receive the Minister of Transport, the Honourable Steven Joyce..."
We only had an hour. The Minister spoke for 30 minutes and took questions for the other 30. Afterward he had to rush off and open the upgraded Morningside Railway Station. Coincidentally (!?) a positive article appeared in NZ Herald that day, noting that passenger transport patronage was now higher than 25 years ago. ARTA has done a fantastic job building services and winning customer support. Very good result.
It was good to have the Minister attend, speak, and answer questions.
I noted a few points as he addressed us. These don't encapsulate what he said. They probably say more about me - than they say about him. But anyway:
1) He said that Auckland spent $1.6 billion on transport last year. He didn't say what that was on, but I imagine it will be everything: construction, maintenance, running costs, fuel .... unsure whether it will include the amount of money citizens put into buying and running their cars... A hell of a lot of money though. Confirms my concern about the % of Auckland GDP that does go into transport. It is not an end in itself - we can't export it...
2) He stated very clearly that Govt was focussed on immediate transport projects and growth. This is not a surprise. It is part of the mantra. Part of recession-busting...
3) He spoke of the new toll road being built at Tauranga. 24 kms long. He emphasised the travel time savings it will bring. This sort of comment is a real throw back to the bad old days - everybody knows you can't build your way out of congestion. Travel time savings are typically very short-lived. Induced demand sucks up the new capacity very quickly. The value of the long term benefits cited for new roading projects (due to travel time savings) - is almost always overstated. These benefits disappear very quickly. They rarely justify the cost of such projects. The Minister needs to show a healthy skepticism about travel time savings benefits. They are ephemeral.
4) The Minister ended with an informal set of comments about where the Government is going with Auckland Transport Planning and service delivery: he characterised the options - something like ARTA?... or a committee within Auckland Council? He indicated there seemed to be good support for an RTA (Regional Transport Authority) rather as recommended by the Royal Commission. Interestingly he suggested it would be likely to include ALL ROADS. Including local streets. It would NOT include rail or state highways though. All of the above is subject to Cabinet approval.
But I have to say I was disturbed by much of what I heard. Particularly his answers to questions asked by members. Many questions addressed the issue of energy - availability and cost. Others questioned the need - for example - for 4 lane state highway to Wellsford.
Cllr Chris Darby of North Shore City Council asked the Minister about how transport policy and spending plans would respond to the warnings that have been given by the International Energy Agency (as reported in NZ Herald 4th August), which has highlighted the tight link between economic growth and oil price when an economy continues to depend on petrol and diesel.
The Minister dismissed the question by saying he believed that oil prices were set politically, and were variable, and that fuel users were not sensitive to price. (Comment: This answer would not be any comfort to Auckland households on a budget, reliant on a car to get to work. We know there are households which spend - now - 40% of household budget on transport. We also know that travel plummeted when crude oil prices doubled eighteen months ago....)
I asked a question about New Zealand Energy Efficiency & Conservation Targets (Government Policy), which this government is in support of when it comes to EECA's Warm Homes:Clean Heat program, but does not take a consistent view of when it comes to transport. I noted the multiple objectives in the Regional Land Transport Strategy (these include: public health, gas emissions, economic efficiency...), and those in EECA's program (which include: employment, improved health, reduced energy use)... I suggested that transport policy needed to internalise energy costs rather than just assume that energy will always be available for transport - no matter the demand.
The Minister made a number of points in answer: that short term projects were necessary, otherwise people will not be able to afford the things they want in life; that Auckland does not need anymore transport projects (after Victoria Park and SH20); he stated that roads - more than any other mode - pay for the full costs of roading; he attacked the NZEECS transport energy target that calls for a reduction by 2015 (I think) of single occupancy vehicle travel - he said he thought that was unattainable, unrealistic, and repeated a comment he has made many times before - that there are dangers in too speedy a transition to change...
In answer to a supportive comment from Auckland City Council's representative on the RTC, the Minister called for: "a hard-headed approach to projects - need real benefit/cost assessment...". (Comment: I completely agree. The problem is, the value of travel time savings are invariably overstated because they get used up in a few few years - they are not there for the duration of the asset. ie the benefits are overstated. And the costs are understated. Particularly those associated with public health; increased emissions (because more fuel is consumed); greater proportion of economic effort used up in transport - displaced from other more productive sectors of the economy....)
He defended the Wellsford motorway project by talking about Whangarei and what Northland needs. He needed to be reminded that already - even in the crappy state it is - that 80% of Northland freight (by weight) gets down to Auckland by rail. It is disappointing for a Minister to bang on about a $3 billion project (like Wellsford SH), without at any time indicating its relastive priority to other projects (if you have $3 billion to spend on transport - where is the best bang for those bucks). And also to not take his own advice and conduct a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis of this and other wish list projects....
But the statement he made that really brought me up short was toward the end of the Q&As. I think it was in answer to a question from Kathleen Ryan who represents Environmental Sustainability on the RTC. She asked about risks because of fuel price hikes. The Minister stated: "... off the top of my head... that the credit crunch was a much bigger issue than fuel price rises...". He appeared to believe that fuel price changes were exacerbated by the credit matter - and that it was the credit crisis that was the cause of the fuel price shock. This is completely contrary to my view of what has happened, and what the cause and effect relationship is. My understanding is that what happened was that what has underpinned global growth over the past few decades has been land development and city building - based on the availability of private transport powered by cheap fuel. In other words the wealth generation the world has seen has been built on cheap and continuous supply of fossil fuel. Suddenly that assumption was challenged, and the attractiveness and certainty associated with funding arrangements for land development - derivatives, hedge funds, loans, the whole nine yards - stopped.
Hiatus.